Mavericks season wrap up

[I've pretty much been meaning to write this for a while. I started thinking about what I would write here while I was watching Game 4 of the Mavericks-Hornets series and I saw something that I had never, ever seen before: Mavs fans walking out of the American Airlines in the middle of their team getting blown out. That signified something to me. It wasn't just fans giving up on the game or even the series. It seemed that many fans were tired of this era of the team. But before I actually started writing, I wanted the outcome of the series to be made official, which I felt would probably happen in Game 4 (even as die-hard a Mavs fan as I am, I pretty much watched the entirety of that game because Pam Oliver was the sideline reporter and I was hoping that some cameraman might get lucky). However, for some reason the higher ups at work actually expected me to...work. So I've been kind of busy and am just now getting a chance to actually put all this down. So without further ado...]

For the second straight year, the Dallas Mavericks' season is over without seeing the second round of the NBA playoffs. For the third straight year, all Mavs fans are left to spit up the bile of disappointment. This season is different though. The way the last two years ended was shocking, to be sure. But they also came upon us suddenly. We didn't know how bad they would be until those respective playoff series actually started. This year's ending was something else. In both of the last two seasons, we Mavs fans grew to expect a strong run out of our team and were eventually disappointed. But at the very least, those disappointments were contained to the playoff series in which the Mavericks lost. This season was more painful, for me at least, because that disappointment was prolonged over the entire season.

Last season, after a 67-15 Dallas squad was upset in the first round, I wondered how the team was supposed to react. I felt that you shouldn't gut a team that had just won 67 games in the regular season (tied for sixth most all time). However, because of the way the Golden State Warriors exposed the weaknesses of the team, changes did have to be made. My thinking was that the Mavericks should keep their core but bring in role players who could provide toughness, leadership, a locker room presence and playoff experience. When the 2007-08 season started and that wasn't done, I started feeling at that time that the season would be less than memorable.

There were a lot of possible blockbuster moves that the Mavericks could have potentially made. For the first time ever, Kevin Garnett seemed ready to leave Minnesota and Dallas was mentioned as a possible destination. Kobe Bryant shook up the basketball world by publicly demanding a trade, with the Dallas Mavericks being one of the three teams (along with the Chicago Bulls and the Phoenix Suns) for which he would waive his no-trade clause. But both of these seismic moves that likely would have required moving Dirk Nowitzki (although I suspect that Kobe wouldn't have accepted a trade to Dallas that didn't allow him to team with Dirk). Those wouldn't be the type of moves to progress the team enough to merit doing them.

KG ended up going to Boston, where he infused that team with a passion that led them to the best record in the league. Meanwhile, Kobe stayed with the Lakers, decided to keep his mouth shut and was rewarded when the his team was able to steal Pau Gasol from the Memphis Grizzlies and ended up with the best record in the West.

Meanwhile, to try and keep up with these movements (along with the Suns' midseason acquisition of Shaquille O'Neal), in February the Mavs gave up their starting point guard, starting center (the two of whom happened to be the team's best defensive players), two first round draft picks, depth and future for a soon-to-be 35 year old point guard who had lost his speed and was never an ideal fit for Avery Johnson's offense to begin with. I've made my thoughts on the Jason Kidd trade abundantly clear from the very beginning, so I won't rehash them. Now is the time to look at what the team has and face the future.

A day after the Mavericks were bounced from the playoffs, coach Avery Johnson was fired. There were two very clearly divided sides in the public reaction to this. One side couldn't believe that Avery was being used as the scapegoat while the other was glad to see him go. Personally, I think that not only did the firing have to happen but it was the best thing that Mark Cuban could do to Avery. Of course, the pro-Avery camp brought out all the statistics:

• he's never won fewer than 51 games in a season
• he has a career winning percentage of 73.5%
• he was the fastest coach to reach 50/100/150 wins and has the best record of any coach over his first 82 games

These things are all well and good but they mask one important thing: Avery Johnson became progressively worse as a coach each of his three full years in Dallas. Of course, some people will say, "Wait, how? He went from 60 wins in his first full season to 67 wins in his second. How did he get worse?" Because the team that won 67 games wasn't as good as its record. As John Hollinger points out, if you really want to gauge how good a team is, win-loss record isn't as important a factor as margin of victory and recent performance. And the fact is that the Mavs victory margin wasn't that great (meaning they were coming up lucky in a lot of close games) and the teams play down the stretch wasn't as strong as it had been earlier in the season (they weren't heading into the playoffs with the necessary momentum). When you factor in all the things the Warriors had going for them, it was just a disaster waiting to happen from Dallas' perspective.

But none of those things indicate that Avery was losing his acumen as a coach. However, what happened in the playoffs did. The reason he'd been lauded as a great coach was not because of the 60 games he won as a first-year, full-season coach. It was because he accomplished something that no other coach in team history had been able to do: he beat the San Antonio Spurs in a playoff series. What's more, he did it by outcoaching the Spurs' veritable genius, Gregg Popovich. After Game 1, when it became apparent that his team wouldn't be able to beat the Spurs at their own game, he took advantage of the Mavericks' main advantage over the Spurs: speed. This pushed the Spurs back on their heels, and even though they came back to force it to seven games, the Mavericks were able to prevail.

However that proved to be the zenith of Avery's coaching tenure. It's well documented how the Mavericks gave up a two games to none lead against the Miami Heat in the Finals. But what was not mentioned very much was how Avery simply could not make the adjustments needed to stop, or at least slow down, Dwyane Wade. It could be overlooked at the time because of the horrendous officiating and Wade looking like he was turning into Michael Jordan-lite. But then next year, Avery again showed an ability to make adjustments to the match ups that Don Nelson threw at him. And then this year, it seemed that--to some extent at least--he had somehow lost the ability to properly guide the team. Both sides needed a new direction; and by Cuban letting go so quickly after the playoff loss, it gives Avery the best chance at finding a good fit for his next job.

So now the big question for the Mavericks is: what happens next? For the first time in over 10 years, I find myself thinking that the team needs to be blown up. But...what exactly does that mean? At its most extreme it means completely rebuilding the team. That could prove difficult though. Most of the key players on the team have the long term, relatively large contracts that would make them difficult to move. And that's just the financial aspect of it. During the past off-season, Josh Howard was being discussed as the centerpiece in a potential package deal to bring Kobe Bryant to the Mavericks. That seems laughable now. After having stunk up his playoffs (highlighted by a memorable 3 for 16 shooting performance in Game 4) and his frank discussion about his marijuana use.

(I'm sorry, I have to follow this lead for a moment. Now, I'm pretty liberal. I think that the fact that alcohol is legal in this country while marijuana isn't is one of the biggest hypocrisies that I can imagine. Marijuana needs to be legalized. Like...30 years ago. But WTF was Josh Howard thinking? He called up 103.3 ESPN radio in Dallas HIMSELF and--unprompted--disclosed that he smokes weed because it's his "personal choice and opinion." Josh, homie, smoking is indeed your personal choice. But, uh...it's probably not a good idea to voluntarily disclose that you use an illicit substance when your team is in the midst of getting smacked around in the playoffs for the third straight year. And what the heck is up with you throwing a party just a few hours after a drubbing by the Hornets? Especially since Avery specifically said no partying? SMH. Orale, homes.)

The status of Jason Kidd is also intriguing. During his run in Dallas, it became painfully obvious that he no longer had the physical talents that had made him arguably the best point guard of the past 15 years, especially on the defensive end. I can't imagine that there will be too many teams eager to trade for a player who averages 10 points, shoots 40% from the field and is owed nearly $20 million next season. However, it will be the last season of his contract so some teams may be willing to get him just to get that expiring contract.

That brings us to Dirk Werner Nowitzki. He has been the face of the franchise for much of the past decade. He's an MVP winner, a perennial member of All-Star and All-NBA teams, arguably the most uniquely talented 7-footer ever and possibly a future Hall of Fame inductee. I personally do not want to ever see him in another team's uniform. However, if the Mavericks choose to rebuild, I think that he should be treated honorably and moved to a team that has a chance to compete for a title sooner rather than later. Dirk's mentality and style of play could easily fit onto a team with an established star. He'd fit nicely on the Cavaliers, for example. His game complements LeBron James' perfectly. On top of that, because his game is not based on athleticism and because he is an almost freakishly fast healer, I suspect that he can still play at a relatively high level for maybe another four or five years.

Actually, that's what annoyed me the most about the Kidd trade (I know I said I would leave it alone but I have to vent). Team management acted like a move needed to be made right away when nothing of the sort was the case. Dirk, Howard and Harris could have been a solid core to build around for several years. But now that's all gone and retooling has to be done. I'm still curious about something though: when was the last time anyone heard from Donnie Nelson? I mentioned it in my post after the Kidd trade that it was odd that he hadn't said anything at all about it. Well, it seems that Donnie hasn't said much of anything for a long time. Where is he? I'm wondering if the feud between Mark Cuban and Don Nelson, Sr has gotten so heated that Cuban has locked away Donnie, Jr as sort of a ransom or something.

Of course, there is always the option of trying to sort out this mess. That wouldn't be unprecedented in Dallas. It kind of gets glossed over because the end results have been largely similar but the Mavericks have had to reinvent themselves a few times over the past several years. What was once a freewheeling offense-focused system coached by Don Nelson and triggered by Steve Nash has turned into a half-court game centered around the match-up problems caused by Dirk. Mavs fans have said hello and goodbye to quite a few players in that time. There's no reason to think that it can't still happen, especially in light of how the Lakers and Celtics were able to jump back to the top of the league. The question there is how. Even though there are will be quite a few quality free agents available this upcoming off-season, with the Mavericks being WELL over the cap, it will be nearly impossible to sign any of them. Another solution would be to figure out some sign and trade deals but that requires other teams agreeing to participate.

*sigh*

What exactly does the future hold for my Mavericks? I really have no idea. But by now I am used to the pain.